“At least two major international hotel chains will go bankrupt in the next five years.”
I recently came across a powerful article in the Dutch Hospitality Management newsletter that really resonated with me.
It articulates, in a sharp and structured way, where the hotel industry is heading — and why the coming years will be far more disruptive than many expect.
It also strongly connects to a topic I wrote about earlier: the decline of Revo Hospitality, and more broadly, the pressure on players stuck in the middle of the market.
With permission from the author, Jona van Loenen (pictured), I’ve translated the article into English and am sharing it below.
The core message is both simple and confronting:
• Two megatrends are reshaping the industry
• Three structural shifts are accelerating the impact
• And the middle of the market is disappearing
Whether you agree or not, this is the kind of perspective that challenges how we think about positioning, investment, and long-term strategy in hospitality.
Curious to hear your thoughts 👇
Let me ask you a personal question.
As a hotelier — what actually keeps you up at night?
It’s probably not your service, your interior design, or your pricing. Why not? Simple. Those are things you control.
What does keep you up at night, I suspect, is something else entirely: the future of tourism, how consumers will spend their money, and where the economy is heading.
Why? Also simple.
Because those are things you don’t control.
And that is exactly what I’m going to change.
How do you gain control over the future? By looking into it. Let’s take a look into the economic crystal ball.
What’s coming?
When I look ahead, I see two megatrends unfolding.
Trend 1: The Economy
Tourism will continue to grow. Spending on travel is closely tied to economic growth. That’s positive — but growth is slowing. Before 2020, international tourism grew at 4–5% annually. Over the next decade, it will likely fall below 2%.
At the same time, we’re moving from globalization to fragmentation. The era of globalization is ending. The share of global trade in world GDP has already declined from 61% (2008) to around 57% (2024) — and will continue to fall.
Impact for hotels: international travelers will become more volatile, while domestic and regional tourism will dominate.
Struggling to find staff? This is just the beginning. By 2035, structural labor shortages could reach 1–1.5 million workers in the Netherlands alone, particularly in service industries.
Fewer people means less capacity and higher wages — putting pressure on margins.
And financing? It will remain expensive. After peaks of 4–5% interest rates in 2023–2024, institutions like the IMF and ECB expect a “higher than before” baseline of 2–3%. This is not temporary — it’s structural.
Trend 2: The Consumer (Behavioral Change)
We are entering the era of the paradoxical guest.
The average traveler compares 38 options before booking. And 73% of travelers are willing to switch accommodations up to 48 hours before arrival if they find a better deal.
Today’s guest is more demanding — and less loyal — than ever.
At the same time, travel behavior is fragmenting.
The traditional family vacation is disappearing. In its place, we see:
- Solo travel (+24% since 2019)
- Bleisure travel (+31%)
- Multi-generational trips (+18%)
- Friend groups (+27%)
Each group has completely different needs — and they stay for shorter periods. Average stays in city hotels have dropped from 3.2 nights (2019) to 2.4 nights (2024).
And then there’s pricing.
The market is polarizing into two tribes:
- Basic (40%) — extremely price-sensitive, sees a hotel as just a place to sleep
- Premium (35%) — willing to pay 200–400% more for aesthetics, values, and uniqueness
The middle (25%) is shrinking by 3–5% per year — and will be absorbed by either side.
The Future: A Collision of Megatrends
Do you see what’s happening?
Consumers want more: experience, sustainability, personalization. But the economy is pushing the opposite direction: margin pressure, labor shortages, limited investment capacity.
The guest wants abundance. The hotel operates in scarcity.
These forces will collide.
And many hotels will be caught in the middle.
The hard truth
Half of all hotels lack the capital, vision, or courage to survive this shift.
They are stuck in the middle.
- Not premium enough to attract high-end guests
- Not cheap enough to compete with budget options
They deliver too little service for the premium segment — and are too expensive for the basic segment.
That’s where problems begin.
My Predictions for the Hotel Market
Prediction 1: The Great Reversal — Why luxury hotels will downsize
For years, hotels have invested in larger rooms and bigger suites.
That made sense. Data showed guests would pay more for space.
But that era is ending.
A new class of wealthy travelers is emerging — people who earn through knowledge, code, and content. They can work from anywhere.
For them, space matters less.
Location matters more.
The key question is no longer: Is the room bigger than 30 square meters?
It is: How quickly can I get from my room to where things are happening?
We are entering an era of “productivity nomadism.”
Small rooms in prime locations will outperform large suites in secondary areas.
My prediction: by 2027, we will see the first micro-luxury hotel chains.
Prediction 2: AI will split the hotel market in two
Society is polarizing — and hospitality will follow.
The market will split into two worlds:
World 1: Fully AI-driven
No reception. Facial recognition. Automated rooms. Voice-controlled services. Robot room service.
Minimal staff. Maximum efficiency.
For some guests, this is perfect.
World 2: Radically human
A hotel where you are recognized by name. Where your preferences are remembered. Where someone gives you a hand-drawn map to hidden local spots.
No visible technology. Only exceptional human service.
And that will come at a premium — up to 50% higher prices.
Why? Because human attention will become the ultimate luxury.
What is scarce becomes valuable. What is valuable gets paid for.
Hotels that sit in between — partially automated, partially human — will struggle.
They carry the costs of both models, without the advantages of either.
My prediction: Within 5–10 years, 40% of 3- and 4-star hotels will go bankrupt or be acquired.
The middle disappears.
Prediction 3: The reversal of scale — small wins
For decades, scale was everything.
Big chains had advantages in purchasing, operations, and technology.
That advantage is disappearing — and reversing.
Why?
- Guests want hyper-local authenticity
- Smaller players can adapt faster
- Technology is now accessible to everyone
The data already shows it:
Boutique hotels are growing faster, with higher margins and occupancy rates than large chains.
My prediction:
In the next five years, at least two major international hotel chains (50+ properties) will go bankrupt or be broken up — while small independent hotels will double their revenue.
The key question: what should you do?
Three fundamental shifts are coming:
- Location beats space
- Tech vs. human: the market splits
- Small becomes powerful
So what do you do on Monday morning?
1. Choose what kind of hotel you want to be
Define your “North Star” in one sentence. Decide where your budget goes. Build a small team that drives this forward.
2. Redesign your product around your guest
Define your target audience. Create 3–5 guest profiles. Develop tailored offerings.
Stop thinking in square meters. Start thinking in value per minute.
3. Tell a story that cannot be copied
Build a local identity. Work with local creators. Create real, human storytelling.
4. Use technology intentionally
Audit your tech. Keep what adds value. Remove what doesn’t.
Final thought
By understanding what you cannot control, you gain clarity over what you can.
And that changes everything.
Because once you know what’s coming, you no longer have to lie awake at night.
And neither do your guests.
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